TSM — expert X mentions

Mizuho Securities: CPUs & GPUs Market Forecasts & Growth > Shipment Growth: Industry server CPU shipments are forecasted to reach 35 million units in 2026 and grow to 50 million units by 2027, representing a 40% year-over-year increase. > Long-Term TAM: The long-term Total Addressable Market (TAM) estimate for 2030 has been raised to $170 billion (up from the previous $107 billion forecast), driven by higher CPU-to-GPU ratio assumptions for AI inference servers. > CPU-to-GPU Ratios: The CPU-to-GPU ratio on AI servers is accelerating and is expected to approach 1:1 by the end of 2027 or 2028. Supply Chain & Technical Bottlenecks > DRAM Constraints: A critical bottleneck exists in DDR5/LPDDR5 supply, with a projected fulfillment ratio of only 70% over the next 12–18 months. > Demand vs. Supply Gap: Based on current models, the 2027 demand for DDR5/LPDDR5X (over 300 billion 1Gb equivalents) significantly exceeds the projected supply (220–250 billion 1Gb equivalents). > Potential Risks: The shortage of key materials—DRAM, substrates, and passives—is expected to persist through 2027 and could pose downside risks to downstream server assemblers, potentially leading to lower server rack output. Key Player Insights (2027 Forecasts) > Nvidia: Expected to reach 5.0–6.0 million units for the Vera CPU, including 2.0–3.0 million units specifically for agentic AI stack racks. > Google: Axion CPU production is projected to increase more than 2x year-over-year, aligning with the growth trajectory of TPU units. > AMD: The N2 Venice CPU is forecasted to exceed 6.0 million units. GPUs/ASICs Market Growth Projections > Rapid Expansion: The total AI ASIC market is projected to grow from 4.1 million units in 2025 to 24.0 million units by 2028. > Volume Drivers: The growth is driven by substantial increases in deployment by major hyperscalers including Google, Amazon (Annapurna), Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI. > External Demand: The market for external (non-Google) AI ASIC units is expected to surge from 0.6 million in 2025 to 7.2 million by 2028. Key Hyperscaler Activity > Google (TPU): Continues to be a dominant player, with total shipment units increasing from 2.5 million in 2025 to 7.1 million by 2028. > Anthropic: Significant ramp-up is forecasted for their "TPU Ironwood/Sunfish" chips, moving from 0.6 million units in 2026 to 6.2 million units by 2028. > Amazon/Annapurna: Shipments for the Trainium line are projected to double from 1.5 million in 2025 to 3.6 million by 2028. > Meta: Rapid scaling of MTIA chips is expected, growing from 0.1 million units in 2025 to 2.7 million units by 2028. Technical Trends > Advanced Packaging & Nodes: There is a heavy reliance on sophisticated packaging technologies like CoWoS-L and CoWoS-S, and advanced foundry nodes including N2, N3, N4, N5, and A16. > HBM Integration: Nearly all listed high-performance ASICs utilize High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), with a transition toward newer generations such as HBM3E and HBM4/4E to meet performance demands. > ASP Variance: Average Selling Prices (ASP) range significantly, from approximately $2,000 for entry-level models to as high as $40,000 for top-tier specialized chips like the TPUv10. $DRAM $EWY $MU $GOOGL $AMKR $TSM $ASE $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MRVL $INTC $MSFT $META

Recommended reading for the weekend: 1. Simon Willison — Kimi K3, and what we can still learn from the pelican benchmark 2. J.P. Morgan — Powering the AI Revolution 3. Zephyr — How to break the memory supercycle? Or is it even possible? 4. TrendForce — Humanoid Robots Part 1: The US-China Divide and Who Controls the Supply Chain 5. Hugging Face — Welcome Inkling by Thinking Machines 6. $ASML & $TSM — Earnings Transcripts

今天A股失守3800点，5000家下跌，这已经是典型的恐慌盘了，尾盘多只宽基ETF今天又显著放量了，这已经是连续四个交易日，沪深300和中证500ETF放量，显然有主力资金护盘 昨晚我说最艰难的时刻可能过去了，主要因为美股，美股昨晚标普500行业11个行业仅有科技和通信是下跌的，市场广度健康 从经济数据和银行股财报来看，经济层面并没有出现问题，就业市场稳健，市场对加息的押注概率也在大幅度走低 市场最大的压力来自于半导体板块，半导体指数承压来自于韩国，韩股和三星、海力士有关的3倍杠杆已经从高点下跌近70%，肃清杠杆的进程我个人觉得在中后期尾部了， ASML财报年EUV产能再增加30%，台积电财报业绩无可挑剔，说明AI需求还在继续增长，最近沃什的表态证明他对AI是坚定拥护，市场这么跌就容易造成踩踏式抛售，科技巨头的财报是重新修正半导体行情的关键，现在耐心等待强平盘的出清

I learn a ton whenever @IanCutress posts something. Great stuff. “From Intel and ASML’s point of view, it means those High-NA layers are dual-qualified in Oregon, and yielding on par with the regular EUV tools that require multiple steps to do the same thing. I asked if this was just test chips, but Intel confirmed it means that notebooks with silicon partly printed on a $380 million High-NA scanner are heading to customers now.” “People who follow Intel will understand that this is the reverse of the last transition, when Intel dragged its feet on EUV in the 10nm era and paid for the caution with years of delay. This time it is the one out front, and TSMC is the one waiting.”

its hard to say that semis have topped or that capex beneficiaries have topped but the sentiment shift has absolutely been violent away from semis/capex names $TSM $ASML crush earnings, doesn’t help big tech will most likely increase capex going into Q2 and maybe calm things down but this selloff feels completely sentiment driven vs fundamentally driven having said that, the sentiment going bearish doesnt have to be because semi fundamentals are bearish, but it could be because people were yolo’ing into names up 4-5x YTD… SPY is almost at ATH, so this absolutely is a reset and maybe a needed reset even if it has been painful for semis if you are heavy SaaS and Mag 7, not feeling as much pain as most of that selloff already happened a few months ago are you buying any of the semis here?

The semiconductor cycle is increasingly becoming an AI cycle. $TSM delivered another record quarter: • Revenue: $40.2B • HPC: 66% of total revenue • HPC growth: +20% QoQ • Automotive: +15% QoQ AI infrastructure spending continues to reshape the entire chip industry. With advanced-node capacity still ramping, the biggest growth opportunity may still be ahead. The companies enabling AI are becoming just as important as the companies building it. $TSM $NVDA $MSFT $AMZN #AI #ChipStocks #LongTerm

$ASML raised full year guidance by up to 7 billion euros. $TSM guided 30% growth with record margins and new fabs in three countries. Both sold off. That is what priced for perfection looks like. When the two companies underneath the entire AI industry report near flawless quarters with visibility into 2028 and still go red, the market is not questioning the demand. It already paid for it. The good news is that priced for perfection is a positioning problem, not a business problem, and positioning resets fast. Demand is still there.

My first reaction was the obvious one. When UMC announced its first 12-inch silicon photonics production wafers, the thought that popped up was: bad news for GF and Tower. The same week's numbers would not let that conclusion stand. TSMC printed a 67.7% gross margin with net income up 77.4% and raised its full year outlook above 40% growth. Korea announced an 8.4GW AI datacenter plan. With demand accelerating at this pace, does the incumbent damage frame even apply? I pulled out the demand framework from my earlier Meta infrastructure piece, converted gigawatts into optical components, and the conclusion flipped. This is not a share fight. It is pie expansion. Then, while I was writing, the strongest piece of evidence arrived on its own. The same day as UMC's announcement, Tower committed roughly $3B to 300mm SiPh in Japan. When a new entrant and the incumbent leader expand capacity on the same day, the question is not who gets hurt. It is what demand they both see ahead. And the deeper I went, the stranger one point became. Silicon cannot make light. There is a material that sells more the more silicon photonics wins, and its supply chain is several steps narrower than the silicon side. Hence the title: the more silicon wins, the more InP sells. Inside the piece: - The full conversion chain from 8.4GW to transceivers to wafers, every assumption on the table - The four foundry map, TSMC, GF, Tower, and UMC, and what actually decides this race - The exact conditions under which the silicon paradox holds, and the names sitting in that seat - Base Case / Alternative / Downside scenarios, plus a monitoring calendar that starts on August 4

AMAT trading down on this massive TSMC capex hike is ridiculous

$TSM’s earnings look great but GM is lower than buy-side expectations. But like I said in the interview with 168X, I have great respect for this company as they care about the ecosystem. If they want, they can raise the prices easily to get a higher margin, but they chose not to. Compared to the greedy Samsung, who is always targeting 99.99% GM 😂. I don’t think this is sustainable.

上飞机前简单说一句，台积电的财报非常好，台积电向来就是科技股财报的风向标，可以看出这个Q的科技股资本开支大概率不会减缓，只要这个不发生，我就不担心。但目前股价还在跌，存储有点全民公敌的意思，太赚钱搞得大家都不爽。事情有点从一个极端走向另一个极端，这种不分青红皂白、无脑下跌的日子肯定无法持续。如果你觉得之前涨得太变态，那现在跌的也太变态了…也需要被纠正，好消息就是好消息，情绪需要时间消化，最终股价还是会回归基本面。 Buy the dip，长期持有，Discord在个人资料。

Wei says he welcomes additional packaging capacity from competitors, referencing the advanced packaging solutions from Intel. TSMC meanwhile “is working very hard to shorten the gap between demand and capacity.”

TSMC 3Q26 Guidance Revenue $44.6bn ~ $45.8bn vs. $43.11bn GPM 65% ~ 67% vs. 65.88%

$TSM TSMC Q2 2026 Earnings Data 🔥 Revenue: $40.20 billion (+33.7% YoY, +12.0% QoQ) Diluted EPS: $4.31/ADR unit (+77.4% YoY) Gross Margin: 67.7% https://t.co/4by6euxyRF

$TSM earnings are now out. EPS: $4.31 vs $3.77 est REV: $40.20B vs $39.76B est Gross Margin: 67.7% Operating Margin: 60.3% Net Profit Margin: 55.6% Overall strong. https://t.co/Nm71wWrTS2

* TSMC 2Q NET INCOME NT$706.6B, EST. NT$623.73B * TSMC 2Q GROSS MARGIN 67.7%, EST. 67.1% * TSMC Operating profit NT$766.6 billion, estimate NT$742.75 billion * TSMC Operating margin 60.3%, estimate 58.6%

TSMC $TSM earnings: EPS: $4.31 vs $3.77 est REV: $40.20B vs $39.76B est Gross Margin: 67.7% Operating Margin: 60.3% Net Profit Margin: 55.6% Strong earnings 🔥 https://t.co/vFINJjJ5gh

Capacity maxed at every layer $ASML: €44B midpoint guide, second raise this year, can't build EUV machines FAST enough. "Taiwan accounted for 30% of revenue during the quarter, up from 23% in 1Q2" $TSM: sold out, every node, five 2nm fabs ramping simultaneously. $MU $SKHY: 85% gross margins and climbing, supply short through 2027 and beyond.

$TSM $MU $SKHY $DRAM TSMC's SoW-X: 64 HBM stacks on a single wafer. Today's best? 12. Today (CoWoS): 8 to 12 HBM stacks 2028 (CoWoS): 20 HBM stacks 2029 (CoWoS): 24 HBM stacks 2029 (SoW-X): 64 HBM stacks The leap is staggering. https://t.co/TsRqiHjq1z

$TSM $ASX $INTC "TSMC is facing a surge in AI chip orders using its advanced packaging technology, such as CoWoS, but competitors such as Intel are benefiting as the Taiwanese semiconductor powerhouse is unable to keep up with demand." "Leading this advanced packaging race is none other than TSMC, whose CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) had a head start over the competition and has been the go-to choice for several years. As demand shoots through the roof, even the Taiwanese giant is facing the brunt of existing bottlenecks within the supply chain and is unable to meet demand." "Intel is aiming to become the 2nd largest advanced packaging provider with its EMIB technologies that are poised to offer several benefits over CoWoS. Furthermore, a wave of Taiwanese packaging and test companies, namely ASE, SPIL, Powertech, and KYEC, is also taking advantage of the situation as TSMC orders face a spill-over effect." "Reports indicate that Intel, with active support from the US government, is aggressively pursuing advanced packaging, and Taiwanese packaging and testing companies, including ASE, SPIL, Powertech, and KYEC, are also taking advantage of the spillover effect of orders." "We have already seen reports that NVIDIA will move advanced packaging orders to Intel for its next-gen Feynman GPUs. These are anticipated to utilize Chipzilla's improved EMIB technology."

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Trump says the U.S. is reinstating the blockade and will now charge a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively putting a tariff on one of the world’s most important shipping routes. He also said the U.S. is “probably just going to take over the Strait,” arguing America has guarded it for 50 years without being paid, while warning Iran that the U.S. is prepared to hit them “very hard” tonight and tomorrow. 2. Apple $AAPL is expected to launch a base M6 this fall, but reportedly skip the M6 Pro, M6 Max, and M6 Ultra, moving directly to M7. The M7 Ultra is designed to support up to 1.5TB of memory, roughly double the planned M5 Ultra capacity, and could help power Apple’s future AI server strategy. Apple is also already developing M8 chips with greater AI capabilities, including 2028 chips moving to a 1.4nm process. $AAPL Apple hit an all-time high today. 3. TSMC $TSM reported record Q2 revenue driven by AI demand. June revenue came in around $13.8B, up 6.2% MoM and 67.9% YoY. Q2 revenue was about $39.6B, up 36% YoY and above the roughly $39.4B estimate. First-half 2026 revenue reached about $75.0B. 4. Meta $META is expanding its Richland Parish, Louisiana data center to 5GW of compute capacity, raising the announced investment to over $50B from the original $10B plan. Bloomberg reports the total site cost could exceed $250B when including chips, though Meta has only publicly disclosed $50B. Meta also plans more than $1B in local infrastructure improvements and says the site will support 1,000+ roles once operational. 5. Newly disclosed court records show Apple $AAPL is suing OpenAI, alleging misappropriation of trade secrets likely stemming to a new consumer device. The Information reports OpenAI’s first consumer AI device could launch as early as February, though Apple’s lawsuit could disrupt the timeline. OpenAI has reportedly explored several hardware concepts, including a display-less smart speaker, smart glasses, a digital voice recorder, and a wearable pin. 6. Penguin Solutions $PENG announced a proposed $650M private offering of convertible senior notes due 2031. Proceeds are expected to fund capped call transactions, refinance existing notes, and repay $100M under its credit agreement as part of a broader capital structure move. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.6M contracts, $TSLA with 2.0M contracts, $AAPL with 1.6M contracts, $AMZN with 676K contracts, $MSFT with 673K contracts, $MU with 609K contracts, $META with 560K contracts, $DRAM with 499K contracts, $INTC with 460K contracts, and $SPCX with 431K contracts. 8. Korea-focused leveraged ETF AUM peaked above $45B in June, but after the recent pullback has fallen to roughly $28B. Exposure remains heavily concentrated in a few key areas: $14B in SK Hynix-linked products, $6B in Samsung-linked products, and $8B in KOSPI 200-linked products. 9. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Rocket Lab $RKLB at Overweight with a $96 price target. Analyst Andres Sheppard highlighted Rocket Lab’s successful U.S. Space Force VICTUS HAZE mission, marking the first time a prime contractor completed an all-in-one Tactically Responsive Space mission covering the rocket, satellite, and on-orbit operations. The firm also called the Iridium acquisition transformative and said it further validates Rocket Lab’s move toward becoming a vertically integrated, end-to-end space company. 10. Intel $INTC is investing $5.7B to expand manufacturing at its Leixlip campus in Ireland. The project will upgrade existing fabs, install new leading-edge equipment, and expand capacity for Xeon 6 and next-gen Xeon processors built on the Intel 3 node. Intel says the investment supports AI and high-performance computing demand while strengthening Europe’s semiconductor supply chain. The Leixlip site employs 4,900 people, with Intel’s total investment in Ireland now above €30B since 1989. 11. Fluence $FLNC signed a contract with Avantus to supply a 200MW / 800MWh Smartstack battery system for the Rexford 2 solar-plus-storage project in Tulare County, California. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with operations targeted for late 2028, and enough capacity to power roughly 84,000 homes. 12. Bernstein says “this time is different” for memory $SNDK $MU, arguing new long-term agreements offer much stronger downside protection than past semiconductor contracts. Unlike prior cycles where customers delayed orders or disputed obligations, Bernstein says today’s memory LTAs are backed by upfront collateral. The firm estimates $SNDK has $11B+ of guarantees supporting roughly $69B of remaining obligations, while $MU holds $18B of deposits plus $4B of letters of credit. Bernstein also says protection is back-end weighted, with collateral coverage rising toward 75%–100% in the outer years when downcycle risk is highest. The bigger shift: counterparties are now hyperscalers and large OEMs with stronger balance sheets, while demand is tied to multi-year AI infrastructure buildouts and rising HBM/DRAM/NAND intensity. Bottom line: LTAs do not eliminate memory cyclicality, but Bernstein believes they improve earnings visibility, pricing durability, and trough protection versus prior cycles. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Taiwan Semiconductor is scaling up its hardware footprint, building three new advanced packaging facilities in southern Taiwan to feed the global boom in AI chip demand. • THE OUTPUT POTENTIAL: Once online, the four combined production plants are forecast to generate over $9.35B in massive annual production value. • THE ANALYST UPGRADE: Momentum is building fast ahead of the next financial update, with 10 analysts revising their forward earnings expectations upward versus zero downward revisions. • THE BALANCE: While the tech giant continues to output stellar baseline profitability metrics, the Seeking Alpha Quant score holds at a neutral HOLD as the business gears up for its upcoming Q2 revenue release on Wednesday. Is $TSM the safest long-term play on global artificial intelligence hardware infrastructure, or are expansion costs too high?

JPMorgan Analyzes Taiwan Semiconductor: CoWoS Shortfall Widens to 20%, AI CPUs Take Over from GPUs Public disclosures from Taiwan Semiconductor confirm a continuous expansion of its advanced packaging capabilities, particularly CoWoS and SoIC. The company projects that CoWoS capacity will achieve a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) surpassing 80% from 2022 through 2027. Capacity has been raised to approximately 220,000 wafers per month—so why is it still insufficient? According to supply chain channel checks by JPMorgan, Taiwan Semiconductor's internal CoWoS monthly capacity is projected to reach approximately 115,000 wafers by the end of 2026, scale up to roughly 190,000 wafers by 2027, and hit between 220,000 and 225,000 wafers by the close of 2028. Secondary reports on these estimates show minor discrepancies; for instance, some sources note that JPMorgan's earlier forecasts placed end-2027 capacity at 175,000 wafers per month and end-2028 capacity at 220,000 wafers per month. Because TSMC does not officially disclose these metrics, these figures represent potential "upside" targets in supply chain models rather than definitive, guaranteed production volumes. OSAT providers are increasingly stepping in to supplement the supply chain. Advanced packaging capacity similar to CoWoS from players like ASE Group and Amkor is projected to ramp from roughly 12,000–15,000 wafers per month at the end of 2026 to around 85,000 wafers per month by the end of 2028. Concurrently, Taiwan Semiconductor is optimizing its own production lines, reallocating internal resources by shifting some capacity originally slated for SoIC to aggressively accelerate its CoWoS expansion. The underlying challenge is that AI hardware is becoming increasingly packaging-intensive. Next-generation AI accelerators, specialized AI CPUs, and custom ASICs are consuming a larger share of advanced packaging capacity; many newer architectures feature expanded die areas, which inherently limits the number of chips yielded per wafer and drains more production resources per unit. Consequently, even as manufacturing lines scale up, the actual footprint and capacity consumed on a per-chip basis are rising simultaneously. Furthermore, the projected ~20% supply-demand deficit is not a universally accepted market consensus. For instance, TrendForce reported in June that this gap could contract to roughly 10% by the end of 2026. Their model estimates Taiwan Semiconductor's standalone monthly capacity will reach 120,000–140,000 wafers by 2026, supplemented by an additional 50,000–60,000 wafers per month from OSAT partners. The variance between these supply chain assessments ultimately boils down to differing calculations regarding how fast customer demand is scaling and how efficiently outsourced, external packaging lines can be brought online to deliver viable commercial yields. NVIDIA remains the largest customer, and CPUs are now also joining the queue. NVIDIA remains the dominant driver of advanced packaging demand within JPMorgan’s modeling. By 2028, its annual CoWoS requirement is projected to climb to roughly 1.735 million wafers, marking a substantial leap from 2027 levels. This massive capacity consumption is propelled not just by next-generation GPUs, but also by a broader hardware portfolio including the Vera and Rosa AI CPUs, LPUs, and advanced networking systems like the Spectrum-X CPO (Co-Packaged Optics) switches. In terms of technology allocation, the model assumes that NVIDIA’s primary accelerators and CPO hardware will utilize CoWoS-L, whereas its CPUs and LPUs will predominantly adopt CoWoS-R, with production volumes split across Taiwan Semiconductor, Amkor, and ASE Group. This represents a major paradigm shift in AI infrastructure architecture. Traditional data center supply chain analyses focused almost exclusively on the "GPU plus HBM" bottle-neck; today, AI CPUs themselves are demanding ultra-high memory bandwidth, denser interconnect architectures, and optimized system efficiency. As a result, host processors are now actively competing for cutting-edge packaging capacity. Meanwhile, designs related to the upcoming Feynman architecture have not yet been fully finalized. Wall Street supply chain models currently omit any explicit assumptions for CoPoS integration; near-term roadmaps suggest a continued reliance on standard CoWoS-L coupled with partial SoIC logic stacking. Even as alternative architectural packaging technologies debut down the road, bypassing CoWoS entirely will remain highly impractical for mainstream AI accelerators throughout the 2027–2028 cycle. AMD, TPUs, and Trainium are all competing for capacity—shortages are not exclusive to NVIDIA. Evaluating the advanced packaging crunch through the lens of NVIDIA alone severely understates the scope of the current supply squeeze. Demand for CoWoS and equivalent advanced packaging technologies is simultaneously accelerating across a broader ecosystem, notably from AMD, Google’s TPU program, and Amazon’s Trainium accelerators. > AMD: The chipmaker is facing capacity constraints across both its datacenter CPUs and AI accelerators. Next-generation products like the Venice server CPU, MI450, and MI500 are all modeled to consume significantly more advanced packaging allocation. The MI500, in particular, features an expanded physical package size, inherently requiring more wafer real estate and packaging resources per chip. Consequently, while AMD’s total wafer-level fan-out demand is projected to climb through 2027 and 2028, actual supply fulfillment rates may only hit 50% to 60%. > Google TPUs: Google's custom silicon volume continues to scale. Total TPU shipment forecasts for 2027 have been revised upward, with the MediaTek-co-designed v8 series driving the bulk of this incremental growth before the product cycle transitions to the v9 generation in 2028. While certain future TPU iterations are slated to potentially diversify into Intel’s EMIB-T packaging architecture, this secondary supply pipeline remains bottlenecked by substrate shortages and yield maturity. > Amazon Trainium: AWS's custom AI infrastructure is similarly accelerating. Full-lifecycle demand projections for Trainium3 have been adjusted upward, with a portion of the design and order allocation potentially spilling over to Marvell. Looking further out, Trainium4 is expected to begin its production ramp in 2028, introducing 3D SoIC logic stacking alongside sophisticated interconnect frameworks. However, these specific shipment volumes and architectural roadmaps remain model-driven assumptions that depend on final tape-outs and manufacturing execution. Ultimately, this multi-front demand explains why the market remains anxious about a structural supply deficit despite Taiwan Semiconductor's aggressive capacity expansions. The advanced packaging bottleneck is no longer just a reflection of NVIDIA GPU volume; it is being compounded by hyperscaler ASICs, high-performance AI CPUs, and expanding chiplet footprints that collectively drain available foundry resources. Taiwan Semiconductor’s total CoWoS consumption is projected to reach approximately 1.24 million, 2.38 million, and 2.63 million wafers per year in 2026, 2027, and 2028, respectively, with NVIDIA maintaining the largest share while AMD and Broadcom/TPU contribute greater incremental volume. $AVGO $MRVL $GOOGL $AMZN $NVDA $AMD

TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, reports 68% surge in June revenue • June revenue reached NT$442.68 billion, up 67.9% YoY; H1 2026 revenue hit $74.99 billion with 35.6% YoY growth • Q2 revenue exceeded high-end guidance at $40.2 billion despite historically declining June trends • N3 process node fully sold out as leading AI chip designers compete for capacity • TSMC commands 73% share of global pure-foundry market with AI revenue expected to reach 25% of total by 2026 • Company adding two advanced packaging plants at Chiayi Science Park in southern Taiwan https://t.co/Jc4HyXBkXu

盈亏同源，错就错在因为存储之前的涨幅没有吃到，导致fomo后面重仓，怕自己再次踏空，说到底还是输给了自己的人性，输给了贪婪，这是一个沉重的教训。引以为戒。 但是只要大科技资本支出不放缓，存储还是能涨回来的！几个关键的时间点，周四的台积电，极大概率能成为这一季的财报指引，大科技们到底有没有放缓资本开支，台积电财报一定能看出来。之后就是20多号的大科技集体财报，谷歌、亚马逊、meta重点关注。 大科技资本支出大概率还是会持续的，meta已经宣布了新的投资，亚马逊也已经借债了，大科技们现在不敢放缓，因为放缓就意味着落后。特别是open ai和Anthropic后起之秀的追赶，大科技怎么敢放下脚步，这是关乎自己未来的赌注。 当然，有些话我还是要说，如果真的放缓了，那可能真的就结束了，割肉买大科技吧。 Discord在个人资料，buy the dip，长期持有。

TSMC's June monthly revenue closed out Q2 with a massive acceleration in growth. https://t.co/KJLW5FYK9o

TSMC reported record Q2 revenue on AI demand. June revenue: about $13.8B, up 6.2% MoM and 67.9% YoY Q2 revenue: about $39.6B, up 36% YoY, above the roughly $39.4B estimate H1 2026 revenue: about $75.0B https://t.co/2l5GAlB38z

今天A股接近4700只股票下跌，成交量能2.8万亿，这种行情赚不到钱不赖你，一切责任归结于韩方 今天韩国本土券商调低海力士盈利预期，本土券商调低本土核心资产的预期这事挺少见，可见韩股杀杠杆的决心 美股这周迎来较多事件，首先宏观数据CPI发布，沃什国会听证会，其次财报季本周正式登场，除了银行股完整美国经济韧性之外， 台积电在本周三的业绩电话会事关AI科技股接下来的走势，台积电会验证先进封装真实供需，支出开支情况，影响存储、光通信、半导体材料 我对本周财报季和宏观事件的催化抱有乐观看法，因此认为下半周指数层面甚至有进一步冲高的概率，唯一核心变量就是美伊局势是不是进一步恶化，希望财报和宏观数据压过地缘，美股带带A股和韩股吧

TSMC June Revenue: NT$442.68B (+6.2% MoM, +67.9% YoY) https://t.co/JWD7z81skq