SNDK — expert X mentions

$SNDK Momentarily flipped green in pre. A near 10% bounce off the overnight lows. Will it hold today?

Morgan Stanley: ZAM Memory > Massive Cloud Capex Exposure: Cloud memory spending is projected to reach US$418 billion by 2030, representing an 8% CAGR from 2026. Memory spending could account for 40% of total cloud capex in 2027 (up from just 12% in 2023, prior to the AI boom). > Bandwidth Lags Behind Processing: Memory bandwidth improvements (e.g., a +14% increase from DDR5-5600 in 2024 to DDR5-6400 in 2026) are failing to keep pace with explosive token growth, which expanded over 320x between April 2024 and June 2026 on major cloud platforms. > Absolute Spend Peaking: Absolute cloud memory spending is forecasted to hit its cycle high in 2028e at roughly US$520 billion. > The Post-2028 Softening: From 2028e to 2030e, even though overall cloud capex (excluding memory) is projected to rise to its highest level of $1.28\text{ trillion}$ by 2030, memory spending falls as a percentage of the total budget back down to 25% by 2030e. DRAM Supply/Demand (S/D) Imbalance > Historical Context: The severe supply shortage of 2023 is clearly visible, bottoming out in 4Q23 near -28%. > The Current 2026/2027 Tightness: Following a brief macro recovery, the market enters a sustained period of deep supply deficit. Through all of 2026e, the supply deficit hovers continuously between -10% and -16%. > Supply Shortage to Persist: Looking ahead, the green bars indicate that the market remains structurally undersupplied, keeping DRAM conditions historically tight all the way through 4Q28e. NAND Supply/Demand Dynamics > The COVID/Post-COVID Glut: The massive NAND oversupply of late 2022 is prominent, peaking in 4Q22 with a +17% surplus. > Structural Repricing Phase: After hitting a deep shortage in 1Q26e (dipping near -9%), the NAND deficit begins to gradually moderate, though it remains marginally in negative territory (undersupplied) near -3% to -4% through late 2026e. > Transition to Enterprise Storage: This sustained tightness supports the report's thesis that NAND is moving from cheap consumer sockets up the memory hierarchy to act as massive LLM KV caches. $DRAM $MU $SNDK $WDC $EWY

BofA: 3Q Memory Key Takeaways from the 3Q Contract Price Check > Strong Server DRAM Pricing: Up 20–30% QoQ, spearheaded by high-speed LPDDR5 (compared to the market consensus of 20% or less). > Upbeat Spot Demand: Spot demand is healthy, driven by commodity DDR5 and legacy DDR4, with July prices increasing Month-on-Month (MoM). > Transition to HBM4: There is a near-term rise in orders shifting toward higher-priced HBM4 over the cheaper HBM3e. > Lower Long-Term Agreements (LTAs): LTA-based sales represent well below 50% of total DRAM sales (non-LTA portion is at 60–70%), allowing for solid QoQ price increases (e.g., 5–10%) that are often settled even under existing LTAs. > Rush Orders: Sudden OEM rush orders confirm a QoQ price increase of over 20% for both commodity DRAM and NAND. > Optimistic ASP Outlook: BofA forecasts a 21% QoQ rise in 3Q DRAM ASP, which is significantly more optimistic than TrendForce's assumptions (13–18% QoQ for conventional DRAM, or only 8–13% including HBM). Spot Market Dynamics > Price Rallies: DRAM spot prices have risen for eight consecutive weeks, defying earlier expectations of a price cap at US$35–40 for 16Gb DDR5. > OEM Buying Behavior: Having previously cut device production to resist the spot-price rally, OEMs are now actively purchasing memory chips to prepare for high sales in September and the peak 4Q season. > NAND Recovery: NAND spot prices rebounded, driven by a 4% Week-on-Week (WoW) rise in 1Tb wafers, supporting expectations of a 10%+ NAND ASP rise in 3Q. $DRAM $MU $SNDK $WDC $EWY

Morgan Stanley: HBM & NAND Supply/Demand HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) Market & Supply > Market Size Expansion: The total HBM market value is projected to explode from US$3 billion in 2023 to US$94 billion by 2027e, representing a massive 128% CAGR. > NVIDIA Market Share: NVIDIA is expected to maintain overwhelming dominance in the GPGPU market, keeping its market share consistently at 90% or above through 2027e (peaking at 92% in 2026e). > Soaring HBM Intensity: The average HBM content per GPGPU is modeled to increase from 80 GB in 2023 to 317 GB in 2027e. Average HBM content per ASIC is also scaling up, from 40 GB to 238 GB over the same period. HBM Supply Shares (2027e Implied Production): SK Hynix: 22,226 million Gb Samsung: 21,239 million Gb Micron: 10,372 million Gb > Widening Deficits: While HBM-specific supply appears to outpace standalone HBM demand, the broader DRAM market faces a severe squeeze. The Total DRAM sufficiency ratio (combining both HBM and commodity DRAM) is projected to plunge to -17% in 2026e and remain deeply negative at -15% in 2027e. AI NAND Market & Supply > Surging AI NAND Demand: Demand for AI NAND is modeled to nearly triple, rising from 205 EB (Exabytes) in 2025 to 609 EB in 2027e. > AI as a Percentage of Total NAND: AI's share of total global NAND demand is expected to climb sharply from 18% in 2025 to 41% by 2027e. Key Hardware Drivers (2027e): ASIC eSSD Usage: Major demand is driven by Google TPU (33 EB) and AWS Trainium (19 EB). GPGPU eSSD Usage: Driven heavily by NVIDIA platforms (63 EB extra deployment per tray + 34 EB in-rack eSSD) and AMD's MI-series (37 EB). > NAND Sufficiency Deficit: After a slight supply surplus of +2% in 2025, the total NAND market is projected to flip into a severe deficit of -15% in 2026e and remain under-supplied at -9% in 2027e. > Non-AI Demand Remains Flat: Meanwhile, non-AI NAND demand (PCs, smartphones, general enterprise SSDs) is projected to remain relatively flat, moving from 905 EB in 2025 to 874 EB in 2027e, showing that AI is entirely driving the market's tight supply dynamics. $DRAM $MU $EWY $SNDK

$SNDK max strike NW puts are $2ish I think 1200 comes by Friday if so $2 to $15-20 possible

@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.

Excerpt from GFHK’s monthly call: Memory sector commentary Customers are pushing back strongly against price increases approaching 30%, leading us to slightly lower our forecast for DRAM price growth in the third quarter. By contrast, we are becoming more positive on NAND. Demand for KV cache offloading continues to exceed expectations, while there is also an emerging trend of substituting expensive DRAM with NAND. We also have a positive view on SK hynix’s second-quarter results. We expect revenue of KRW 85 trillion and a gross margin of 63%. $SKHY $MU $SNDK

Morgan Stanley: Sandisk $SNDK AI-Driven Market Transformation > Shift in Demand: AI inference is fundamentally reshaping the NAND market. Growing Large Language Model (LLM) KV cache and context window storage needs are outstripping DRAM capacity, pulling NAND upward in the memory hierarchy. > Less Price Sensitivity: Cloud datacenters are on track to become the largest end market for NAND later this year. Unlike traditional PC and mobile customers, cloud customers are much less sensitive to NAND pricing. > Segment Growth: Driven by these factors, SanDisk's cloud segment grew 233% q/q in Q1, following a 64% q/q increase in Q4, primarily utilizing TLC-based drives. Enhanced Margin Durability & The New Business Model (NBM) > NBM Agreements: To secure long-term margin sustainability, SanDisk is leveraging New Business Model (NBM) agreements. It has already locked in more than one-third of its FY27 bits under these 3-to-5-year contracts. > Downcycle Protection: These NBM contracts are strictly approved at the executive/board level and carry heavy, back-end-weighted financial penalties (approx. $11 billion disclosed) if customers decommit, giving SanDisk a highly durable safety net during potential downturns. > Margin Health: Management believes its goal of achieving high gross margins has largely been met, modeling a non-GAAP gross margin of 86.7% for FY27e. Supply, Growth, and Technology Trajectory > Controlled Growth: SanDisk is targeting a mid- to high-teens bit growth profile long-term, which it plans to achieve through technology transitions rather than oversupplying the market. > Product Pipeline: While QLC "Stargate" drives are slated to begin shipping this quarter, high endurance and latency needs have increased management's steady-state confidence in TLC and SLC solutions. > High Bandwidth Flash (HBF): SanDisk expects to sample its new HBF architecture (utilizing SLC for an order of magnitude more bandwidth) in H1 2027. It is working to standardize this interface in a partnership with SK Hynix. > Capital Allocation & FCF: Cash returns will prioritize a $6 billion share buyback program. The company prefers expanding its existing scale and government incentives in Japan over building new fabs in the U.S. at this time.

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Trump says the U.S. is reinstating the blockade and will now charge a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively putting a tariff on one of the world’s most important shipping routes. He also said the U.S. is “probably just going to take over the Strait,” arguing America has guarded it for 50 years without being paid, while warning Iran that the U.S. is prepared to hit them “very hard” tonight and tomorrow. 2. Apple $AAPL is expected to launch a base M6 this fall, but reportedly skip the M6 Pro, M6 Max, and M6 Ultra, moving directly to M7. The M7 Ultra is designed to support up to 1.5TB of memory, roughly double the planned M5 Ultra capacity, and could help power Apple’s future AI server strategy. Apple is also already developing M8 chips with greater AI capabilities, including 2028 chips moving to a 1.4nm process. $AAPL Apple hit an all-time high today. 3. TSMC $TSM reported record Q2 revenue driven by AI demand. June revenue came in around $13.8B, up 6.2% MoM and 67.9% YoY. Q2 revenue was about $39.6B, up 36% YoY and above the roughly $39.4B estimate. First-half 2026 revenue reached about $75.0B. 4. Meta $META is expanding its Richland Parish, Louisiana data center to 5GW of compute capacity, raising the announced investment to over $50B from the original $10B plan. Bloomberg reports the total site cost could exceed $250B when including chips, though Meta has only publicly disclosed $50B. Meta also plans more than $1B in local infrastructure improvements and says the site will support 1,000+ roles once operational. 5. Newly disclosed court records show Apple $AAPL is suing OpenAI, alleging misappropriation of trade secrets likely stemming to a new consumer device. The Information reports OpenAI’s first consumer AI device could launch as early as February, though Apple’s lawsuit could disrupt the timeline. OpenAI has reportedly explored several hardware concepts, including a display-less smart speaker, smart glasses, a digital voice recorder, and a wearable pin. 6. Penguin Solutions $PENG announced a proposed $650M private offering of convertible senior notes due 2031. Proceeds are expected to fund capped call transactions, refinance existing notes, and repay $100M under its credit agreement as part of a broader capital structure move. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.6M contracts, $TSLA with 2.0M contracts, $AAPL with 1.6M contracts, $AMZN with 676K contracts, $MSFT with 673K contracts, $MU with 609K contracts, $META with 560K contracts, $DRAM with 499K contracts, $INTC with 460K contracts, and $SPCX with 431K contracts. 8. Korea-focused leveraged ETF AUM peaked above $45B in June, but after the recent pullback has fallen to roughly $28B. Exposure remains heavily concentrated in a few key areas: $14B in SK Hynix-linked products, $6B in Samsung-linked products, and $8B in KOSPI 200-linked products. 9. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Rocket Lab $RKLB at Overweight with a $96 price target. Analyst Andres Sheppard highlighted Rocket Lab’s successful U.S. Space Force VICTUS HAZE mission, marking the first time a prime contractor completed an all-in-one Tactically Responsive Space mission covering the rocket, satellite, and on-orbit operations. The firm also called the Iridium acquisition transformative and said it further validates Rocket Lab’s move toward becoming a vertically integrated, end-to-end space company. 10. Intel $INTC is investing $5.7B to expand manufacturing at its Leixlip campus in Ireland. The project will upgrade existing fabs, install new leading-edge equipment, and expand capacity for Xeon 6 and next-gen Xeon processors built on the Intel 3 node. Intel says the investment supports AI and high-performance computing demand while strengthening Europe’s semiconductor supply chain. The Leixlip site employs 4,900 people, with Intel’s total investment in Ireland now above €30B since 1989. 11. Fluence $FLNC signed a contract with Avantus to supply a 200MW / 800MWh Smartstack battery system for the Rexford 2 solar-plus-storage project in Tulare County, California. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with operations targeted for late 2028, and enough capacity to power roughly 84,000 homes. 12. Bernstein says “this time is different” for memory $SNDK $MU, arguing new long-term agreements offer much stronger downside protection than past semiconductor contracts. Unlike prior cycles where customers delayed orders or disputed obligations, Bernstein says today’s memory LTAs are backed by upfront collateral. The firm estimates $SNDK has $11B+ of guarantees supporting roughly $69B of remaining obligations, while $MU holds $18B of deposits plus $4B of letters of credit. Bernstein also says protection is back-end weighted, with collateral coverage rising toward 75%–100% in the outer years when downcycle risk is highest. The bigger shift: counterparties are now hyperscalers and large OEMs with stronger balance sheets, while demand is tied to multi-year AI infrastructure buildouts and rising HBM/DRAM/NAND intensity. Bottom line: LTAs do not eliminate memory cyclicality, but Bernstein believes they improve earnings visibility, pricing durability, and trough protection versus prior cycles. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

Team took profits on $SNDK at highs because we saw institutions weren’t targeting higher 🫡🎯 @blademapai https://t.co/LeQPH8H74r

BofA: Global Memory > Super-Cycle Intact: The BofA memory indicator remains near record highs (reaching 183 in May, well above past peaks of 120–130). High-end memory demand (HBM4, SOCAMM, etc.) continues to drive exceptional strength. > Massive Revenue Growth Forecasted for 2026: Global DRAM revenue is expected to nearly quadruple (+325% YoY) in 2026, primarily driven by a sharp rebound in Average Selling Prices (ASPs). NAND revenue is similarly projected to jump nearly fourfold (+299% YoY) in 2026. > Servers & AI Dominating DRAM: Servers—especially AI systems utilizing High Bandwidth Memory (HBM)—now account for over half of total global DRAM demand due to high memory density per system. > SSDs Fueling NAND: Enterprise and data center Solid State Drives (SSDs) utilized in AI applications now make up more than 50% of total NAND demand and sales, commanding a price premium over standard IT applications. > Sizable Share of AI Hardware Budgets: High-bandwidth memory (HBM) and advanced data center memory now command a massive 35% to 40% of total cloud AI infrastructure spending. Big Tech's cloud and AI capex is projected to push close to $1.5 trillion by 2027. > HBM Supply Cannibalization: Producing an HBM chip requires 3x to 4x more silicon wafer capacity than traditional DRAM. Because they share the same production lines, manufacturers are prioritizing high-margin HBM, starving the market of standard capacity. > DDR5 Premium Disappears: The rapid exit of tier-one manufacturers from mature products has triggered a severe, structural shortage in legacy DDR4. BofA notes that spot prices for 16Gb DDR4 and DDR5 have essentially converged into the $35–$40 range. The traditional technology premium of DDR5 over DDR4 has largely vanished because manufacturers are dropping DDR4 production faster than PC and server customers can physically transition their setups. Massive Revenue Surge Forecasts (2026E) > Total Market Expansion: Combined DRAM and NAND revenue is projected to nearly quadruple to $891.8 billion in 2026E (up from $214.8 billion in 2025). > DRAM Performance: DRAM revenue alone is expected to increase by +325% YoY to $568.8 billion in 2026E. This hyper-growth is heavily back-loaded, with quarterly revenue ramping up aggressively from $83.9 billion in 1Q26E to $182.6 billion by 4Q26E. > NAND Performance: NAND revenue is forecast to surge +299% YoY to $323.1 billion in 2026E, climbing from $45.3 billion in 1Q26E up to $102.4 billion in 4Q26E. High-Bandwidth Memory (HBM) Deep Dive > TAM Scaling: The Total Addressable Market (TAM) for HBM is projected to hit $76.8 billion in 2026E (+122% YoY) and skyrocket to $134.6 billion by 2027E. > Astounding Profitability: The industry average Operating Profit Margin (OPM) for HBM is sitting near a massive 49% for 2026E, climbing even higher to 54% in 2027E. The Technology Shift (HBM Mix): 2026E: Mainstream volume is dominated by HBM3e (60%) and HBM4 (32%). 2027E: The mix flips heavily into HBM4 (64%), while the next-gen HBM4e begins its entry at 19%. 2028E–2030E: The long-term horizon shows rapid transition into HBM5+, which is expected to command 79% of the market mix by 2030E. > Server Intensity: AI+HBM server units are scaling to 4.5 million systems in 2026E, with memory intensity per server jumping to 1,413 GB per AI server. Pricing (ASP) & Shipment Dynamics > The Rebound Driver: The entire super-cycle is pricing-driven. Blended DRAM Average Selling Prices (ASPs) are modeling a +249% YoY expansion in 2026E ($13.0 per 8Gb equiv. unit vs. $3.7 in 2025). Blended NAND ASPs are modeling a +238% YoY increase. > Quarterly Pricing Velocity: The fastest pricing momentum occurs in the first half of the year, with DRAM ASP growth showing a massive +73% QoQ spike in 1Q26E and +53% QoQ in 2Q26E, before cooling down to normal levels (+21% in 3Q, +7% in 4Q). Capex & Capacity Expansions > Massive Investment Outlays: Total industry Capex spending (DRAM + NAND) is projected to jump +62% YoY to $118.7 billion in 2026E. > DRAM vs. NAND Split: Manufacturers are funneling the vast majority of cash into DRAM, ramping DRAM capex by +65% YoY to $88.6 billion. NAND capex is expanding much more modestly at +55% to $30.1 billion. > Wafer Capacity: Total DRAM wafer capacity is expanding to 2,066k wafers per month in 2026E, out of which 23% of all global DRAM wafer capacity is being swallowed up solely by HBM production. $MU $SNDK

$MU $SKHY $SNDK $DRAM CPU TAM by 2030: $200 Billion. That's cute. Memory TAM by 2030? ~$1 - $2 Trillions projected by financial banks and private research firms. And no, it's not cycle, it's a structural shift. That's a 5-10x gap + paradigm shift, the market is not pricing in.