MXL — expert X mentions

Update post earnings $MXL Market cap: ~$6.5B Next-quarter guide: ~$215M (+27.4% QoQ, +70.0% YoY) My next 4q revenue estimate: $950M–$1.05B, 67–85% growth My exit margins: 61–63% adjusted gross, 31–34% adjusted operating Bounced off a critical zone in the ~$68-$70 area. Get's ugly below there Next few days will be important NFA

Another amazing quarter $MXL > Q2 revenue hit $168.8M, up 55% YoY and 23% sequentially > Infrastructure grew 145% YoY and another 35% sequentially > Adjusted operating margin expanded to 22.3% from 15.9% last quarter > Q3 revenue guide came in at $210M–$220M, implying another ~27% sequential jump at the midpoint > 2026 optical data-center revenue was raised again to $190M–$210M, up from $150M–$170M just three months ago > 1.6T is now in customer hands and moving through initial qualification The 800G optical ramp is scaling much faster than expected, infrastructure has become the largest part of the business, and they are already working to carry that position into the 1.6T cycle. The next checkpoints are customer breadth, gross margins moving sustainably above 60%, working-capital conversion, and the pending SIMO arbitration. But from an operating standpoint, this was an extremely strong report. Currently down ~10% AH No position for me yet. Full report tonight. NFA

$MXL just confirmed the AI optics ramp is real. Revenue of $168.8M against $164.7M expected, up 55% year over year. EPS of $0.35 versus $0.33, up from 2 cents a year ago. Operating margin exploded to 22.3% from 7.2%. They even swung to GAAP profitability after a 52 cent loss just last quarter. Infrastructure, the segment we own this for, grew 145% on optical AI data center adoption. But the guide is the shocker. Q3 revenue of $210-220M. That's 27% sequential growth at the midpoint and nearly double the year ago quarter. Margins holding through the entire ramp. A year ago this was a $100M per quarter broadband company. It's guiding to $215M next quarter on AI optics. Why it matters: Keystone is ramping for 800G optical at hyperscale AI data centers, the exact segment where Broadcom and Marvell mint money, with 1.6T products lined up as the next leg. The CEO called it a "significant inflection" with "multiple growth drivers converging over the next two years." And they built $19.7M of inventory sequentially while still generating positive cash flow. You don't stock up like that unless the orders are already visible. Last quarter they promised a step-function. This quarter they delivered it. The Q3 guide doubles down. The inflection printed.

$MXL reports after the close. Quick sheet. Street wants $165M revenue and $0.33 EPS. That's 51% growth, and estimates have been revised up 11 times in three months. Management has been openly bullish. From the last call, the CEO's words: "We believe it marks the beginning of a multi year growth phase for MaxLinear, led by our optical data center business." Infrastructure grew 136% and he guided the optical ramp higher on the spot. Asked if there was more upside, his answer: "Do we expect more upsides? Absolutely." Management is talking about a $3B infrastructure business long term. The number to watch tonight is optical revenue and the Q3 guide.

$MXL Earnings this week! Another explosion coming? Market cap: ~$6.6B Next-quarter guide: ~$165M (+20.3% QoQ, +51.6% YoY) My next 4q revenue estimate: $800–880M, 55–70% growth My exit margins: 61–63% adjusted gross, 27–31% adjusted operating MXL sits in the connectivity-silicon layer Their exposure includes: > 400G, 800G and 1.6T optical DSPs > TIAs > AECs and on-board retimers > LPO, LRO, XPO and CPO > Storage acceleration > Data-center control and PON nfrastructure grew 136% year over year and became MXL’s largest segment. Management also raised its 2026 optical data-center revenue outlook to $150–170M. The current engine is its 400G and 800G optical DSP portfolio, which is now ramping across multiple U.S. and Asian hyperscalers. Important to know what that does for 1.6T. They have now completed interoperability testing, qualified with major customers and shown that they can supply product at scale. That gives their next-generation 1.6T DSP a much better path into the market. Production should begin late in 2026 and expand through 2027. MXL is also broadening its content with 200G-per-lane TIAs, AEC and retimer products for scale-up systems, and chips used for data-center management. Storage acceleration is another overlooked piece. Management expects that revenue to at least double in 2026. The margin improvement comes from the mix. As optical DSPs and infrastructure become a larger percentage of revenue, I think gross margin can move above 60% while operating leverage pushes adjusted operating margin toward 30%. Risks: hyperscaler concentration, advanced-wafer supply, working-capital needs, the Silicon Motion arbitration, 1.6T qualification timing and multiple compression. NFA