MU — expert X mentions

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Google $GOOGL is developing a new AI chip that could run Gemini models 6x to 10x more efficiently than its latest TPUs, per The Information. The chip, internally called “Frozen v2,” would bake parts of Gemini’s architecture directly into silicon, reducing data movement and simplifying inference decisions. Google is targeting deployment as early as 2028 to help ease its AI compute shortage, though the design would trade flexibility for major gains in speed and power efficiency. 2. Microsoft $MSFT is expanding its partnership with AMD $AMD and will deploy AMD’s Helios rack-scale systems on Azure for frontier AI inference. The platform combines MI455X GPUs, Venice CPUs, Pensando networking, and ROCm software, with shipments to Microsoft beginning in the second half of 2026. Azure will also add new AMD-powered virtual machines for agentic AI, data pipelines, and semiconductor design, marking a broader adoption of AMD’s full AI infrastructure stack. 3. AUM in U.S. leveraged semiconductor ETFs has fallen $63B from the June peak to $100B, the lowest level since late April. That marks a 39% decline, the largest drawdown since April 2025, when assets more than halved from their August high. The semiconductor unwind accounts for 63% of the broader $100B drop in AUM across all U.S. leveraged ETFs over the same period. The selloff follows a massive ramp, with assets in these funds nearly tripling between late March and the June peak. Even after the pullback, leveraged semiconductor ETF assets are still up 400% from January 2023 levels. 4. Archer $ACHR and Anduril unveiled Thunder, an autonomous attack VTOL aircraft, with first flight planned for 2027. The runway-independent hybrid-electric aircraft is designed to operate autonomously alongside crewed attack and assault aircraft. The dual-use platform features tiltrotors and modular payloads for both defense and commercial missions. Full-scale surrogate flights have already been completed, and Archer plans to announce its first commercial customers later this week. 5. Chinese AI models are taking record share among U.S. firms on OpenRouter. The proportion of tokens used by American companies running through Chinese models has climbed to roughly 58%, a record high. OpenRouter lets developers access and compare models from multiple providers, making it a useful real-world signal of AI model adoption. Chinese model usage has tripled since mid-January, overtaking U.S. peers on the platform for the first time in March and briefly hitting 63% in early July. At the start of 2025, Chinese models were under 10% of usage, while U.S. models were around 80%. DeepSeek has become the most popular choice among American firms in recent months. 6. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.1M contracts, $TSLA with 2.4M contracts, $AAPL with 1.8M contracts, $MU with 951K contracts, $MSFT with 884K contracts, $AMZN with 691K contracts, $INTC with 640K contracts, $SPCX with 606K contracts, $AMD with 506K contracts, and $GOOGL with 492K contracts. 7. BofA reiterated its Buy rating on CoreWeave $CRWV with a $140 price target. Analyst Tal Liani raised FY26 capex estimates to $34B from $29B, saying capex remains a key indicator of buildout progress and hardware pricing. BofA expects Q2 operating margin of 2.4%, slightly below the Street at 2.8%, but sees margins improving through the rest of the year as active power drives revenue recognition. By Q4, BofA expects operating margin to reach 14.6%, up from 1.0% in Q1, showing strong operating leverage. The firm also pushed back on competition concerns from SpaceX and Meta, arguing AI compute demand still far exceeds supply, making access to capacity the real bottleneck rather than provider choice. 8. IREN $IREN raised its 2026 AI Cloud ARR target to over $4B, up from its prior target of $3.7B. The company announced new AI cloud contracts representing $2.8B in total contract value, with approximately 85% of the updated ARR target now under contract. Goldman Sachs estimates the newly announced contracts represent an additional roughly $1B in contracted revenue with an average term of around 3 years. IREN also said recent agreements include customer prepayments covering about 45% of GPU capex, with customer contracts having a weighted average term of approximately 4 years. 9. UBS says Micron $MU could repurchase more than 40% of its shares by the end of 2028. The firm expects Micron to generate over $40B in free cash flow through 2028, and once its buyback restriction expires on December 9, 2026, UBS says the company could potentially use that cash to buy back more than 40% of its shares at the current price. Morgan Stanley said that memory stocks are trading at attractive prices but their best risk to reward names in the semi space are $NVDA Nvidia and $AVGO Broadcom. 10. Bloom Energy $BE shares are trading lower after New Mexico regulators rejected permits for a gas pipeline planned to supply Oracle’s Project Jupiter data center for the second time. The decision could delay the campus, which is expected to use up to 2.5GW of Bloom Energy’s gas-powered fuel cells. Energy Transfer may now pursue an alternative pipeline route. 11. Intel $INTC plans additional layoffs in its data center group as part of a broader effort to become a more focused and efficient company, CNBC reports. Intel said the unit is realigning roles and skills for long-term success, though the number of affected employees was not disclosed. 12. Trump signed three proclamations under Section 338 of the Tariff Act of 1930 imposing additional 50% tariffs on certain Canadian goods in response to what the White House calls Canada’s discriminatory treatment of U.S. products. The tariffs cover different categories of Canadian imports, including products ranging from wine to hockey sticks to cement, and apply even if goods originate under USMCA. Exemptions include energy, potash, goods already subject to Section 232 tariffs, fish, critical minerals, and certain other products. The tariffs take effect 30 days after signing. WALL STREET IS THE GREATST SHOW ON EARTH,

If I had to bet on the future, I'd bet on these 5 sectors. One name each. Interconnect - $CRDO Every generation of AI compute needs more links between chips, and it doesn't matter whose silicon wins. Copper king today, just bought their optical future with DustPhotonics. The wiring gets paid in every scenario. Neoclouds - $NBIS Compute is the scarcest resource on earth right now. Models are literally rationing customers. Nebius has $46B+ in contracts from Meta, Microsoft, and Reflection, growing revenue 684%, and just went asset-light to scale on other people's capital. Memory - $MU Three companies supply the entire world, and the SK Hynix CEO says it's sold out beyond 2030. Customers are prepaying years in advance. Micron is committing $250B to US fabs because they can see the demand curve. Oligopoly plus shortage is the best setup in markets. Semis- $INTC Someone has to physically make the chips on American soil, and there's exactly one US company that can. Every reshoring dollar, every national security mandate, every hyperscaler wanting domestic supply flows through the same place. Compute empires - $META Half of humanity on their apps, an ad machine printing $160B+ a year funding it all, 14GW of compute by 2027, their own chip in production, and an AI cloud business the market prices at zero. The future needs all of them.

Mizuho Securities: CPUs & GPUs Market Forecasts & Growth > Shipment Growth: Industry server CPU shipments are forecasted to reach 35 million units in 2026 and grow to 50 million units by 2027, representing a 40% year-over-year increase. > Long-Term TAM: The long-term Total Addressable Market (TAM) estimate for 2030 has been raised to $170 billion (up from the previous $107 billion forecast), driven by higher CPU-to-GPU ratio assumptions for AI inference servers. > CPU-to-GPU Ratios: The CPU-to-GPU ratio on AI servers is accelerating and is expected to approach 1:1 by the end of 2027 or 2028. Supply Chain & Technical Bottlenecks > DRAM Constraints: A critical bottleneck exists in DDR5/LPDDR5 supply, with a projected fulfillment ratio of only 70% over the next 12–18 months. > Demand vs. Supply Gap: Based on current models, the 2027 demand for DDR5/LPDDR5X (over 300 billion 1Gb equivalents) significantly exceeds the projected supply (220–250 billion 1Gb equivalents). > Potential Risks: The shortage of key materials—DRAM, substrates, and passives—is expected to persist through 2027 and could pose downside risks to downstream server assemblers, potentially leading to lower server rack output. Key Player Insights (2027 Forecasts) > Nvidia: Expected to reach 5.0–6.0 million units for the Vera CPU, including 2.0–3.0 million units specifically for agentic AI stack racks. > Google: Axion CPU production is projected to increase more than 2x year-over-year, aligning with the growth trajectory of TPU units. > AMD: The N2 Venice CPU is forecasted to exceed 6.0 million units. GPUs/ASICs Market Growth Projections > Rapid Expansion: The total AI ASIC market is projected to grow from 4.1 million units in 2025 to 24.0 million units by 2028. > Volume Drivers: The growth is driven by substantial increases in deployment by major hyperscalers including Google, Amazon (Annapurna), Meta, Microsoft, and OpenAI. > External Demand: The market for external (non-Google) AI ASIC units is expected to surge from 0.6 million in 2025 to 7.2 million by 2028. Key Hyperscaler Activity > Google (TPU): Continues to be a dominant player, with total shipment units increasing from 2.5 million in 2025 to 7.1 million by 2028. > Anthropic: Significant ramp-up is forecasted for their "TPU Ironwood/Sunfish" chips, moving from 0.6 million units in 2026 to 6.2 million units by 2028. > Amazon/Annapurna: Shipments for the Trainium line are projected to double from 1.5 million in 2025 to 3.6 million by 2028. > Meta: Rapid scaling of MTIA chips is expected, growing from 0.1 million units in 2025 to 2.7 million units by 2028. Technical Trends > Advanced Packaging & Nodes: There is a heavy reliance on sophisticated packaging technologies like CoWoS-L and CoWoS-S, and advanced foundry nodes including N2, N3, N4, N5, and A16. > HBM Integration: Nearly all listed high-performance ASICs utilize High Bandwidth Memory (HBM), with a transition toward newer generations such as HBM3E and HBM4/4E to meet performance demands. > ASP Variance: Average Selling Prices (ASP) range significantly, from approximately $2,000 for entry-level models to as high as $40,000 for top-tier specialized chips like the TPUv10. $DRAM $EWY $MU $GOOGL $AMKR $TSM $ASE $NVDA $AMD $AVGO $MRVL $INTC $MSFT $META

"Even if the memory shortage persists throughout 2027, research firms, sell-side analysts, and other prominent industry observers broadly agree that the supply-demand imbalance will begin to ease in 2028." Yes, that is correct. I actually have an interview transcript (I cannot disclose due to sensitivity) where the senior employee of one semiconductor company in Taiwan states: "The supply and demand for DRAM will reach a balance in H2 2028 to stabilise the price." He explains it along the lines of: 2026: The current demand gap is hovering around 4% to 5%. Original 2025 projections of an 8% to 9% shortage proved exaggerated because major manufacturers like Samsung and SK Hynix successfully transitioned from 1b to 1c process technologies. This node upgrade boosted bit output and filled much of the anticipated shortfall. 2027: The supply gap is projected to shrink to under 3% by the second half of the year as Micron and Samsung ramp up entirely new production facilities. 2028: The market will face a minor 2% to 3% deficit in the first half of the year (H1) before finally achieving a complete supply-demand equilibrium in the second half (H2), driven by the massive volume of new capacity deployed between late 2027 and 2028. $MU $EWY $DRAM

Did Kimi just start another DeepSeek moment? Kimi released the largest open weight model ever yesterday. It scored 57 on the Artificial Analysis index, 3 points behind Claude Fable 5, causing AI stocks to panic. The bears say intelligence is becoming a commodity. Open models from China collapse token pricing, frontier labs lose the revenue that funds their next training run, and the economics of ever larger training runs get harder to justify. Multiples compress starting with neoclouds, power plays, and data center REITs. The bulls point to Jevons paradox. Cheaper models raise the ROI on AI spend, which drives more token consumption and pushes margin out of the model layer into semis, power, and data centers. K3 also needs GB300 class hardware with 288GB per chip just to load, so wide deployment of this model means more orders for the highest end silicon. On cost, K3 runs $0.94 per task vs $1.04 for GPT-5.6 Sol, because it burns 50-70% more tokens per job. DeepSeek undercut everything on price. K3 lands at the same per-task cost as the closed models it competes with. We cover both cases, the four scenarios, and K3's self-optimization capability in the free article below Who do you think is right, the bulls or the bears? $NVDA $AMD $MU

$META in talks to rent up to $10B in AI compute to Anthropic over two years. GPU+HBM clusters are becoming enterprise revenue engines. $MU $SKHY $DRAM. Healthy Economics Incoming. Claude is the enterprise standard for complex, high value problems. Most expensive frontier model per task. Highest KV cache footprint. Highest HBM demand per token. Enterprise doesn't mean casual usage. It means contracted, always on workloads running around the clock. Every dollar Meta charges Anthropic for enterprise compute flows directly through GPUs and HBM.

$MU how you could’ve made 1,000%+ from Short Target Completion to Long Confirmation Thesis: Our downside objective on $MU had already been achieved before the market opened. Over the previous sessions, @blademapai bearish framework was targeting $815 as the lower end of the expected move. MU reached that level in pre-market, completing the downside objective and signaling that we should begin looking for evidence of a potential reversal instead of continuing to press shorts - unless of course we see data that could mean we can go lower The key wasn’t predicting the exact bottom, it was recognizing when the downside thesis had likely run its course Step 1: Institutional Flow Appears Shortly after the open, Blademap detected aggressive 840 strike 0DTE call buying, contracts were trading around $400 per contract. By itself, this activity isn’t enough to justify a trade. The question becomes: Is price confirming what institutions are betting on? Step 2: Structure Confirms As price developed, MU began building above the 10-minute clouds (first reclaim of the green clouds is marked with an arrow). This was the first technical confirmation that buyers were beginning to defend higher prices. Rather than chasing the initial move, the higher-probability entry came once price established acceptance above the cloud structure (second arrow) Step 3: The Pullback After the initial rally, $MU experienced a sharp pullback. This is where many traders panic. Instead of focusing on the temporary decline in option value, we should be focused on market structure. Price repeatedly tested the 10-minute Clouds over multiple candles and continued to hold support. The important observation wasn’t that contracts pulled back. It was that support never failed. For traders using 0DTE contracts, taking profits into strength is completely reasonable due to their extreme volatility. However, from a structural perspective, nothing had invalidated the trade. Step 4: Higher Timeframe Alignment The next confirmation came from the hourly 5 SMA. Throughout the session, MU continued respecting hourly 5 SMA support. This added another layer of confirmation that buyers remained in control the entire time (first red arrow shows reclaim of hourly 5sma, 2nd hourly candle builds and closes above, second red arrow shows test of hourly support, price respects it, and bounces With both: 10-minute Clouds holding Hourly 5 SMA acting as support …the probability favored continuation rather than failure. Step 5: Institutions Continue Adding As the trend developed, additional bullish positioning appeared. Blademap detected fresh call buying, including 900 strike calls with approximately 7 DTE, showing institutions were continuing to position for additional upside instead of exiting after the initial move. Continued institutional participation strengthened the bullish thesis rather than weakening it. Outcome? The trend continued throughout the session The original 0DTE calls appreciated dramatically, while later institutional call positions also moved significantly in favor of buyers. Some of the contracts ultimately exceeded $5,000 per contract, over 1,000% in gains Key Lesson This trade wasn’t about buying because Pulse showed activity. It wasn’t about buying because MU bounced It was about allowing multiple independent factors to align: - Previous downside target completed. - Aggressive institutional call buying appeared. - Price reclaimed and held the 10-minute Clouds. - Pullbacks respected cloud support instead of breaking it. - Hourly 5 SMA remained intact. - Additional institutional call flow continued entering as the trend matured. One signal can be noise. Several independent confirmations occurring together create a much higher probability trading environment. That’s the difference between reacting to price and following a repeatable process Image 1: 840 0dte Image 2: 10m clouds Image 3: Hourly 5s Image 4: Pulse shows $900

$MU Holy Structural Shit Morgan Stanley projects Micron hitting ~$70B in gross profit by CQ3 2027. $43.2B → $50.7B → $55.9B → $62.0B → $70.0B Every single quarter higher than the last. No plateau. https://t.co/S3jSONiIBu

$MU SCAs (Long Term Agreements) Details "As for up-front cash or prepayments, the company will receive cash "deposits" of $18bn and letters of credit of $4bn, for a total of $22 billion in financial commitments for those 16 deals so far. Micron will hold the deposit, and customers will get their deposits back as they perform under the contract but with a back-end weighting. Micron said repeatedly on the call that these contracts cannot be cancelled, but if a customer can't take volume at the agreed price, one remedy will be for Micron to draw on the deposits, but there are other options as well." -Morgan Stanley.

Two different realities. Someone just panic sold $MU at a single digit forward P/E. Meanwhile at the actual fabs, $MU $SKHY and Samsung engineers are shipping record chip volumes at record prices and loading wafers into cleanrooms to prepare for yet another record quarter and guide higher, and expanding fabs for record revenues in 2027 and beyond. One of these people knows what's happening. The other is staring at a screen.

Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.

Many people are asking what to do since a lot are down -20% - 50%. If you're down big time, the risk-to-reward to sell right now isn't the best. You can sell or adjust on the next 10%+ relief rally days. But right now, I don't think it makes sense. 1. Our core portfolio: +1.69% 2. $SPY: -0.15% 3. $QQQ: -4.36% 4. $XLK (pure tech ETF): -6.75% Our core portfolio is outperforming and holding up amazingly so far since we've rotated. Game plan: 1. Tech is still weak, but coming down to better levels. I will be a buyer once I start to see the downtrending stop. I do NOT add to my position unless I start to see a few days or weeks of sideways (no more big down days). I am eye'ing $MU, $MRVL, $ARM and others. 2. Medical supply companies are looking better. Eye'ing entries into this sector. Watching companies like $BSX try to form a low. 3. Travel like $BKNG and airlines like $DAL are interesting as well. For us, it's all about surviving until tech can find a footing. Once it does, we'll rotate heavily back into tech in the core portfolio. Let's continue to survive, then we'll play aggressive once the time is right 💪

Bought $MUU $MU overnight here, $815 downside target achieved, we need to see institutional data shift and position themselves to the upside tomorrow if this is gonna be a real bounce otherwise it could just be another fake one like we saw on CPI @blademapai

Morgan Stanley: ZAM Memory > Massive Cloud Capex Exposure: Cloud memory spending is projected to reach US$418 billion by 2030, representing an 8% CAGR from 2026. Memory spending could account for 40% of total cloud capex in 2027 (up from just 12% in 2023, prior to the AI boom). > Bandwidth Lags Behind Processing: Memory bandwidth improvements (e.g., a +14% increase from DDR5-5600 in 2024 to DDR5-6400 in 2026) are failing to keep pace with explosive token growth, which expanded over 320x between April 2024 and June 2026 on major cloud platforms. > Absolute Spend Peaking: Absolute cloud memory spending is forecasted to hit its cycle high in 2028e at roughly US$520 billion. > The Post-2028 Softening: From 2028e to 2030e, even though overall cloud capex (excluding memory) is projected to rise to its highest level of $1.28\text{ trillion}$ by 2030, memory spending falls as a percentage of the total budget back down to 25% by 2030e. DRAM Supply/Demand (S/D) Imbalance > Historical Context: The severe supply shortage of 2023 is clearly visible, bottoming out in 4Q23 near -28%. > The Current 2026/2027 Tightness: Following a brief macro recovery, the market enters a sustained period of deep supply deficit. Through all of 2026e, the supply deficit hovers continuously between -10% and -16%. > Supply Shortage to Persist: Looking ahead, the green bars indicate that the market remains structurally undersupplied, keeping DRAM conditions historically tight all the way through 4Q28e. NAND Supply/Demand Dynamics > The COVID/Post-COVID Glut: The massive NAND oversupply of late 2022 is prominent, peaking in 4Q22 with a +17% surplus. > Structural Repricing Phase: After hitting a deep shortage in 1Q26e (dipping near -9%), the NAND deficit begins to gradually moderate, though it remains marginally in negative territory (undersupplied) near -3% to -4% through late 2026e. > Transition to Enterprise Storage: This sustained tightness supports the report's thesis that NAND is moving from cheap consumer sockets up the memory hierarchy to act as massive LLM KV caches. $DRAM $MU $SNDK $WDC $EWY

To the people selling their memory stocks and/or the people that don’t understand the current supply/demand dynamics… please watch the interview below. Dylan from @SemiAnalysis_ says DRAM prices will increase another 100-200% from here because demand is increasing exponentially but supply is only increasing 20-30% per year and there’s no new supply coming until 2028. Right now $MU (Micron) is trading below 5x 2027 EPS estimates and $SKHY (SK Hynix) is trading below 4x 2027 EPS estimates. At the current prices these companies will generate profits equal to their entire market cap within the next 5 years. Will be interesting to watch them buyback $100-150B of stock per year at 5x EPS. NFA. DYOR. *we own $MU and $SKHY either directly or indirectly at @FirstWaveFund

BofA: 3Q Memory Key Takeaways from the 3Q Contract Price Check > Strong Server DRAM Pricing: Up 20–30% QoQ, spearheaded by high-speed LPDDR5 (compared to the market consensus of 20% or less). > Upbeat Spot Demand: Spot demand is healthy, driven by commodity DDR5 and legacy DDR4, with July prices increasing Month-on-Month (MoM). > Transition to HBM4: There is a near-term rise in orders shifting toward higher-priced HBM4 over the cheaper HBM3e. > Lower Long-Term Agreements (LTAs): LTA-based sales represent well below 50% of total DRAM sales (non-LTA portion is at 60–70%), allowing for solid QoQ price increases (e.g., 5–10%) that are often settled even under existing LTAs. > Rush Orders: Sudden OEM rush orders confirm a QoQ price increase of over 20% for both commodity DRAM and NAND. > Optimistic ASP Outlook: BofA forecasts a 21% QoQ rise in 3Q DRAM ASP, which is significantly more optimistic than TrendForce's assumptions (13–18% QoQ for conventional DRAM, or only 8–13% including HBM). Spot Market Dynamics > Price Rallies: DRAM spot prices have risen for eight consecutive weeks, defying earlier expectations of a price cap at US$35–40 for 16Gb DDR5. > OEM Buying Behavior: Having previously cut device production to resist the spot-price rally, OEMs are now actively purchasing memory chips to prepare for high sales in September and the peak 4Q season. > NAND Recovery: NAND spot prices rebounded, driven by a 4% Week-on-Week (WoW) rise in 1Tb wafers, supporting expectations of a 10%+ NAND ASP rise in 3Q. $DRAM $MU $SNDK $WDC $EWY

RSI on $DRAM hit 89 just a few weeks ago... since then $DRAM has pulled back -36%, given back more than 50% of it's gains since launch and RSI is now under 40 btw: $MU trading below 5x CY2027 EPS $SKHY trading below 4x CY2027 EPS https://t.co/MROyrlTwjK

$MU $SKHY $DRAM "DRAM export value in early July increased 437% compared to the same period last year." "Analyst Ryu Hyung-geun projects that 2027 HBM ASP will rise more than 100% year-over-year. The base scenario is a 100% increase, and the upside could be even larger depending on negotiations with customers." "The reason is not limited to HBM supply-demand alone. As general-purpose DRAM becomes more profitable, the opportunity cost for memory companies when allocating the same capacity to HBM also rises. [...] Customers may accept higher prices to secure stable HBM volumes." "SK Securities analyst Han Dong-hee stated that if long-term supply contracts expand and price increase rates moderate, subsequent performance growth must be driven by increased sales volume."

$MU "Once the company gets to their target level of SCA (Long-Term Agreement) coverage, Micron expects it to be >50% of revenues. SCA floor prices will exceed previous peak contract price in Micron's history." -Morgan Stanley Structural revenue stability. Still not priced in.

$MU hitting some decent support here around $850-$870’s. But gotta hold this. Could see a near term oversold bounce to backtest the 50dma around $923’s. Let’s see.

Today, $MU announced it signed memory LTAs with $QCOM. Interesting reaction to see Micron proceeded to drop 5.37% right after. Doesn’t quite feel like there’s anything individually wrong with memory or AI names with all these structural agreements signed? More like the tail end of deleveraging / margin cascades.

$MU 5.89x. Ridiculous. Record profits projected in 2027. Record again in 2028. And yet the market prices it like the story is over. This is absurd. https://t.co/YtgkFIijPy

$MU $SKHY $DRAM New private (non bank) memory research just landed. July reports. Some of these reports cost five figures annually. I will be sharing my commentaries on these reports on Patreon. A bargain if you're in the memory complex. One data point jumped out immediately. "DRAM capex is expected to reach a record high in 2026, currently projected at near $65bn, driven not only by HBM and node migration, but increasingly by higher construction spending for new fabs and cleanroom expansion." "Most of the current capex surge is unlikely to contribute materially to production until late 2027 or 2028, leaving near-term supply growth still dependent on migration and selective line optimization." "Record-high DRAM capex increasingly reflects construction-led investment, but most new capacity is unlikely to contribute meaningfully until late 2027 or 2028." https://t.co/LYqoeOF7k1

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Momentum stocks are getting crushed in July. Goldman Sachs’ High-Beta Momentum Index is down 24% month-to-date through the first half of the month, its worst stretch since April 2009. Morgan Stanley’s Tech Momentum Index is also seeing its sharpest breakdown on record, with its 17-day rate of change down 35%, the worst move in its 27-year history. But the broader market is holding up better, with the S&P 500 green today as hyperscalers rallied, showing the market may be broadening out beyond the hardest-hit momentum names. 2. PPI came in cooler than expected across the board. Headline PPI was 5.5% YoY vs 6.2% expected, while PPI fell 0.3% MoM vs expectations for 0.0%. Core PPI was 4.7% YoY vs 5.1% expected, with Core PPI rising 0.2% MoM vs 0.3% expected. 3. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 3.7M contracts, $TSLA with 2.8M contracts, $AAPL with 2.5M contracts, $MU with 1.1M contracts, $AMZN with 1.0M contracts, $MSFT with 895K contracts, $META with 815K contracts, $INTC with 754K contracts, $GOOGL with 717K contracts, and $SPCX with 506K contracts. 4. Nvidia $NVDA is expanding its Toyota partnership beyond autonomous driving, supplying AI hardware and software for smart cities, traffic systems, and factories. Toyota will use Nvidia technology in Woven City, along with Omniverse for assembly-line digital twins, Isaac robotics, and Nemotron LLMs. 5. CoreWeave $CRWV is exploring financial hedges to protect against a future decline in memory and storage chip prices, per Reuters. Put options and other derivative instruments have reportedly been discussed, though talks are still early and no hedges have been executed. The issue: AI cloud providers have signed long-term supply deals with companies like Micron and SanDisk that include price floors for DRAM and storage chips. That protects chipmakers if prices fall, but could leave cloud buyers stuck paying above-market rates. 6. Anthropic is preparing investor meetings ahead of a potential IPO as soon as October, per Bloomberg. Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and JPMorgan are reportedly working on the listing. The Claude maker was valued at $965B after its May funding round, reportedly surpassing OpenAI. 7. Stripe and Advent have reportedly offered to buy PayPal $PYPL for $60.50/share, valuing the company at more than $53B, per Reuters. The offer is backed by roughly $50B in committed bank financing. Stripe and Advent would jointly own PayPal with equal stakes, rather than breaking the company up. 8. Apple $AAPL is reportedly looking at AI chip acquisitions to strengthen its server-chip strategy, per The Information. The company has spoken with bankers and approached semiconductor startups as its current M2 Ultra-based AI servers struggle with more advanced AI workloads. Apple is also relying on Nvidia chips inside Google Cloud for heavier tasks, including parts of the revamped Siri. A future Apple AI server chip, code-named Baltra, was expected this year but has reportedly been delayed. 9. Nokia $NOK will begin selling Nvidia-powered AI mobile network gear starting in 2027. The new AI-driven RAN platform is expected to improve spectrum efficiency by 50% next year and allow operators to transmit 2x more data over the same airwaves by 2028. The platform will also support software upgrades toward 6G and work with Open RAN standards. 10. Nebius $NBIS introduced an asset-light AI cloud model built through infrastructure partnerships. Under the model, partners will finance, own, and operate the data centers and hardware, while Nebius provides the architecture, software stack, supply-chain access, and sells the capacity through its own sales team. Nebius expects to generate revenue through revenue-sharing, licensing fees, commissions, and committed capacity agreements, with minimal incremental capital required. 11. ASML $ASML reported a massive Q2 beat and raised FY26 guidance. Net sales came in at €9.33B vs €8.85B expected, EPS was €7.59 vs €6.90, and gross margin reached 54.0% vs 52% expected. ASML said customers are accelerating capex plans, visibility is stronger than usual, and it is already close to receiving all required 2027 EUV orders. Memory is expected to drive major growth, with FY26 memory revenue up roughly 75%, EUV revenue up 45%, and Installed Base Management revenue up more than 30%. The company also said its updated guidance includes expected demand from Elon Musk’s Terafab project, with ASML expecting to collaborate with Musk’s team as AI drives more advanced Logic and Memory lithography demand. 12. Leveraged ETFs are flooding the U.S. market. There are now a record 700 U.S.-listed leveraged ETFs, more than twice the count at the end of 2024, with 400+ tied to individual stocks. Roughly 210 new leveraged funds have launched this year, already exceeding the ~205 launched during all of 2025. Leveraged and inverse products represented 31% of U.S. ETF launches in the first half of 2026, up from 22% last year. June alone saw 117 leveraged or inverse ETF debuts, nearly half of all 239 ETFs launched in the U.S. that month. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.

$MU Let's check the facts. TurboQuant? Noise. DeepSeek? Noise. Apple? Consumer. Irrelevant to AI memory. Claude needs context. More context. More Memory. More Intelligence. So does every AI model on the planet. And none of them can get enough. HBM prices are going multiples higher in 2027. Not incremental. Multiples. FQ4 2026 guidance is a record: $49 to $51B in revenue, 85%+ gross margins, and management says free cash flow will "increase substantially again." Micron is expected to generate north of $200 billion in operating income in fiscal 2027, that's 20% of its market cap in 2027 alone. Best quarter in memory history. Strongest guide ever. Strongest Horizon. Market sells it. Oh, and demand outpaces supply beyond 2027. Market got it wrong. Again. $1500 incoming.

There are 3 avenues I explored for hyperscalers in the coming months and how memory costs may impact their earnings. Hardware is a small part of their overall business, but has the potential to create the same impact as Samsung's mobile business did in their preliminary earnings. Check it out 👇 $GOOGL $AMZN $MSFT $NVDA $MU $DRAM $EWY

Micron is investing $3B in global wafers to lock in its U.S. chip supply chain, boosting its long-term domestic investment target to over $250B through 2035. • THE TARGET: This aggressive capital drive supports the company's ambitious goal to manufacture 40% of its DRAM domestically and prevent future hardware bottlenecks. • THE ENGINE: The expansion is fully supported by stellar corporate fundamentals, highlighted by $90.27B in total revenue and a massive net margin of 55.91%. • THE RATING: Driven by flawless underlying growth indicators, the Seeking Alpha Quant model has flagged $MU as a solid STRONG BUY. Will this monumental $250B domestic production push secure $MU as the king of memory chips, or are the capital requirements too risky?

Morgan Stanley: HBM & NAND Supply/Demand HBM (High Bandwidth Memory) Market & Supply > Market Size Expansion: The total HBM market value is projected to explode from US$3 billion in 2023 to US$94 billion by 2027e, representing a massive 128% CAGR. > NVIDIA Market Share: NVIDIA is expected to maintain overwhelming dominance in the GPGPU market, keeping its market share consistently at 90% or above through 2027e (peaking at 92% in 2026e). > Soaring HBM Intensity: The average HBM content per GPGPU is modeled to increase from 80 GB in 2023 to 317 GB in 2027e. Average HBM content per ASIC is also scaling up, from 40 GB to 238 GB over the same period. HBM Supply Shares (2027e Implied Production): SK Hynix: 22,226 million Gb Samsung: 21,239 million Gb Micron: 10,372 million Gb > Widening Deficits: While HBM-specific supply appears to outpace standalone HBM demand, the broader DRAM market faces a severe squeeze. The Total DRAM sufficiency ratio (combining both HBM and commodity DRAM) is projected to plunge to -17% in 2026e and remain deeply negative at -15% in 2027e. AI NAND Market & Supply > Surging AI NAND Demand: Demand for AI NAND is modeled to nearly triple, rising from 205 EB (Exabytes) in 2025 to 609 EB in 2027e. > AI as a Percentage of Total NAND: AI's share of total global NAND demand is expected to climb sharply from 18% in 2025 to 41% by 2027e. Key Hardware Drivers (2027e): ASIC eSSD Usage: Major demand is driven by Google TPU (33 EB) and AWS Trainium (19 EB). GPGPU eSSD Usage: Driven heavily by NVIDIA platforms (63 EB extra deployment per tray + 34 EB in-rack eSSD) and AMD's MI-series (37 EB). > NAND Sufficiency Deficit: After a slight supply surplus of +2% in 2025, the total NAND market is projected to flip into a severe deficit of -15% in 2026e and remain under-supplied at -9% in 2027e. > Non-AI Demand Remains Flat: Meanwhile, non-AI NAND demand (PCs, smartphones, general enterprise SSDs) is projected to remain relatively flat, moving from 905 EB in 2025 to 874 EB in 2027e, showing that AI is entirely driving the market's tight supply dynamics. $DRAM $MU $EWY $SNDK

Capacity maxed at every layer $ASML: €44B midpoint guide, second raise this year, can't build EUV machines FAST enough. "Taiwan accounted for 30% of revenue during the quarter, up from 23% in 1Q2" $TSM: sold out, every node, five 2nm fabs ramping simultaneously. $MU $SKHY: 85% gross margins and climbing, supply short through 2027 and beyond.

People who got long memory sticks in the last couple months are going to have a very rough time when they’re down 50% and the narrative is completely different When your favorite influencer says they sold Micron at your cost basis, it’s going to be rough I don’t say this to mock anyone, I genuinely feel for people who got into these names recently What’ll sting even more is that the memory companies will be making more money than ever, the P/E ratio will look like an error, and the only consoling thought will be “the stock market is rigged” And maybe I’m wrong, I called the top in memory stocks back in May haha. But at some point, there will be top buyers who will turn into bag holders and it will be very painful

$MU "Of those 16 customers, there are four very large customers, three medium sized customers, and the other nine are smaller customers related to the auto industry" My guess: 4 mega customers (hyperscale AI) 3 mid tier customers (enterprise/cloud) 9 smaller customers (automotive) So across the board.

@michaelsikand DRAM 20%+ hike for next quarter, $SNDK LTAs with $META, $MU 16+ LTAs. Market: proceeds to sell off memory. 800G transceiver revision sharply upward? Lasers completely sold out into early 2029? Market: sells off photonics and laser companies.

@meikozz_2026 I don't see any fundamentally wrong. There's probably going to be large corrections from time to time flush out margin/leverage before things move higher. And this month seems like that time of year? $POET confirmed your big optical giants like $LITE, $COHR are completely sold out for the next 2 years, and likely into 2029 for photonics. Innolight confirmed 800g transceiver upward revisions 3 days ago, so that should be positive for $AAOI and the others. Samsung became the most profitable company in the world, and continues to project DRAM hikes for future quarters. $MU signed 16+ LTAs showing memory demand is structural... $META + hyperscaler capex plans are on the higher end of projections. I wouldn't conflate short term price movements with longer term trends. And as seen with $AEHR, recoveries tend to be extremely fast (eg. 1M of corrections wiped out overnight).

Excerpt from GFHK’s monthly call: Memory sector commentary Customers are pushing back strongly against price increases approaching 30%, leading us to slightly lower our forecast for DRAM price growth in the third quarter. By contrast, we are becoming more positive on NAND. Demand for KV cache offloading continues to exceed expectations, while there is also an emerging trend of substituting expensive DRAM with NAND. We also have a positive view on SK hynix’s second-quarter results. We expect revenue of KRW 85 trillion and a gross margin of 63%. $SKHY $MU $SNDK

$MU "Our view is consistent with management, that AI will keep DRAM demand well above supply BEYOND 2027" -Morgan Stanley Holy Structural $DRAM Shit

Well, looks like SLC NAND is forcasted to rise up 120-170% for H2 2026 per Trendforce. There's $MU (21%), Kioxia (20%) as largest share, but clearer beneficiaries appears to be: 1. Winbond (2344): ~15% of the SLC NAND market 2. Macronix (2337): ~11% market share 3. SkyHigh Memory via Puya Semi: ~14% market share Given Micron at $1T and others are a bit large relative to SLC NAND TAM. (source: Q1 2026 Winbond presentation/Trendforce).

Morgan Stanley: Semiconductors Memory Market Debates & Pricing Cycles > AI Spend (Constructive): Driven by hyperscale capex spend, the intensity of top LLMs, funding, and Annual Revenue Run Rate (ARR). The team notes that 2Q26 capex is the true "tell" and that monetizing infrastructure does not equal excess compute. > LTA Re-rating (Neutral): There is no structural re-rating on Long-Term Agreements (LTAs). The market is pricing memory earnings rationally rather than euphorically, drawing parallels to the analog case study during COVID where LTAs were renegotiated or inventory was forced. > Memory Cycle (Neutral Inflection): The cycle is seeing a peaking year-over-year (YoY) rate of change, but it is expected to elongate rather than collapse. DRAM contract pricing is forecasted to peak in 4Q26. > Inventory Trends: DRAM and NAND inventory picked up in 2Q26, a shift primarily driven by module houses rather than suppliers or OEMs. NAND Supply vs. Demand Scenario (YMTC Focus) > Capacity Expansion: China's YMTC is building Fab4 and Fab5 (~100kwpm capacity each). Dedicating all five announced fabs to NAND could theoretically elevate YMTC to a 24% global NAND market share. > Outlook to 2028: Assuming non-AI NAND demand grows at +5% YoY and AI SSD demand expands by +30–60% YoY, the NAND market is projected to stay tight into 2028—provided YMTC remains disciplined. Faster greenfield expansion remains the primary oversupply risk. $MU $DRAM $EWY

Overall charts in the Memory space look constructive. Building out new bases. $SNDK $MU $DRAM $SKHY https://t.co/ABtSwFV1hI

🍽️ Lunch Hour Market Brief — Tuesday, July 14 MARKETS S&P 500: +0.3% | Nasdaq: +0.9% | Dow: -0.3% | VIX: 16.6 THE BIG PICTURE • CPI cooled to 3.5% vs 3.8% est, lifting stocks. • Fed Chair Warsh vows "no tolerance" for inflation in testimony. • $IBM's 22% crash drags Dow negative despite Nasdaq/S&P chip rally. • $BTC climbs 3.3% to $64.8K on cooler inflation data. TOP MOVERS 🟢 $GS — up on record Q2 profit, smashed estimates. 🟢 $NVDA — up as U.S. clears H200 chips for China. 🟢 $AMD — up on same China chip news, analyst upgrades. 🟢 $MU — up on chip rally, KeyBanc price-target hike. 🟢 $LRCX — up on chip-equipment rally, multiple analyst upgrades. ELSEWHERE • Oil surges on U.S.-Iran blockade, Strait of Hormuz fees. • Dollar dips modestly, still near 13-month highs on haven demand.

SK Hynix trades ~5.5x forward earnings. Micron trades ~6.66x. That ~21% gap is the discount the ADR listing is trying to close — and the risk if it doesn't. @GraniteShares' $SKUU (2x long) and $SKDD (2x short) let traders express either read of that setup.

$MU Can we go to $1500 already? Seems like a no brainer. Micron is on track to generate nearly $400 billion in CY26/27 revenue combined. That's roughly 40% of its market cap produced in just two years. At what point does the market stop ignoring the math?

$MU continues to respect support. 📈 Now watching resistance around $102. Software names are showing weakness, while AI and semiconductor companies keep delivering monster earnings. The rotation into chips is getting harder to ignore. $NVDA $AMD $AVGO https://t.co/oC07xsROni