INTC — expert X mentions

Kim Sunwoo of Meritz Securities: "This Is Not the Time to Sell Samsung Electronics and $SKHY" They claim markets are excessively misunderstanding the situation with semis. And that DRAM shortage will intensify in the second half of this year. - H2 2026: "suppliers can fulfill only 75%–80% of DRAM demand". - 2027: "fulfillment is expected to fall into the 60% range." In the article, they attached market forecasts that show SK Hynix with a 2027 3.5x P/E and Samsung a 3.9x P/E. Think the $INTC CEO said it best around timeframes with his quote "no relief in memory supply or pricing until at least 2028". Especially after $MU 16 LTAs with favorable take or pay volume contracts... memory demand seems structural.

I learn a ton whenever @IanCutress posts something. Great stuff. “From Intel and ASML’s point of view, it means those High-NA layers are dual-qualified in Oregon, and yielding on par with the regular EUV tools that require multiple steps to do the same thing. I asked if this was just test chips, but Intel confirmed it means that notebooks with silicon partly printed on a $380 million High-NA scanner are heading to customers now.” “People who follow Intel will understand that this is the reverse of the last transition, when Intel dragged its feet on EUV in the 10nm era and paid for the caution with years of delay. This time it is the one out front, and TSMC is the one waiting.”

Wei says he welcomes additional packaging capacity from competitors, referencing the advanced packaging solutions from Intel. TSMC meanwhile “is working very hard to shorten the gap between demand and capacity.”

Good news! "Intel Foundry has entered high-volume manufacturing for a subset of Intel® Core™ Ultra Series 3 processors, code-named Panther Lake, using ASML’s EXE High NA EUV technology" https://t.co/jhlwlREvxo

$INTC high NA and EUV https://t.co/AmVlIXfiyn

Intel $INTC has decided to use a high-end machine from ASML $ASML to manufacture some of its flagship Panther Lake laptop chips, ASML said on Tuesday, a move that will help the chipmaker learn to use the tool more effectively. https://t.co/rZkOoIa6r1

CPU CPU CPU KeyBanc: "Outlook for general purpose server is increasing as AMD/INTC is able to squeeze out additional wafer supply, while ARM demand increases." "Our outlook for general purpose server unit growth is increasing to +30% from +18.5% previously, as x86 supply has slightly improved while ARM is increasingly being used for agentic AI workloads given the tightness at AMD/INTC." "AMD has been able to obtain incremental wafers at TSMC at N4, due to order cuts from MTK as a result of cuts in smartphone builds and estimates it will be able to support server CPU unit growth of +15-20% this year; 3) NVDA has increased its Vera CPU capacity by 1.2M-1.5M units to 2.5M-3.0M to service agentic AI demand; 4) Higher AWS Graviton and Google Axion ARM server CPU demand" "AMD and INTC hope to grow server CPU units >50% in 2027. Both AMD and INTC are expanding server CPU capacity to support server CPU unit growth of over 50% in 2027."

KeyBanc on Intel: "Demand for server CPU remains outsized given strong agentic AI trends, while INTC has been able to expand capacity at INTC 3 to support +25-30% unit server growth this year and over 50% next year." "Yields on 18A continue to improve meaningfully to over 85% from 65% last quarter." "We see signs INTC plans to significantly expand 18A capacity given improving yields and customer design wins. In addition to AAPL, we believe INTC hasalso been able to secure design wins with AMD, NVDA, MRVL, MSFT, MU, and OpenAI." "Increasing pricing on client CPUs again in 3Q26 by +6-15%." "As most of the significant growth opportunities in foundry and EMIB-T ramp in 2029/30"

$TSM $ASX $INTC "TSMC is facing a surge in AI chip orders using its advanced packaging technology, such as CoWoS, but competitors such as Intel are benefiting as the Taiwanese semiconductor powerhouse is unable to keep up with demand." "Leading this advanced packaging race is none other than TSMC, whose CoWoS (Chip-on-Wafer-on-Substrate) had a head start over the competition and has been the go-to choice for several years. As demand shoots through the roof, even the Taiwanese giant is facing the brunt of existing bottlenecks within the supply chain and is unable to meet demand." "Intel is aiming to become the 2nd largest advanced packaging provider with its EMIB technologies that are poised to offer several benefits over CoWoS. Furthermore, a wave of Taiwanese packaging and test companies, namely ASE, SPIL, Powertech, and KYEC, is also taking advantage of the situation as TSMC orders face a spill-over effect." "Reports indicate that Intel, with active support from the US government, is aggressively pursuing advanced packaging, and Taiwanese packaging and testing companies, including ASE, SPIL, Powertech, and KYEC, are also taking advantage of the spillover effect of orders." "We have already seen reports that NVIDIA will move advanced packaging orders to Intel for its next-gen Feynman GPUs. These are anticipated to utilize Chipzilla's improved EMIB technology."

A TON OF THINGS HAPPENED IN THE STOCK MARKET TODAY. Here's a full recap: 1. Trump says the U.S. is reinstating the blockade and will now charge a 20% fee on all cargo passing through the Strait of Hormuz, effectively putting a tariff on one of the world’s most important shipping routes. He also said the U.S. is “probably just going to take over the Strait,” arguing America has guarded it for 50 years without being paid, while warning Iran that the U.S. is prepared to hit them “very hard” tonight and tomorrow. 2. Apple $AAPL is expected to launch a base M6 this fall, but reportedly skip the M6 Pro, M6 Max, and M6 Ultra, moving directly to M7. The M7 Ultra is designed to support up to 1.5TB of memory, roughly double the planned M5 Ultra capacity, and could help power Apple’s future AI server strategy. Apple is also already developing M8 chips with greater AI capabilities, including 2028 chips moving to a 1.4nm process. $AAPL Apple hit an all-time high today. 3. TSMC $TSM reported record Q2 revenue driven by AI demand. June revenue came in around $13.8B, up 6.2% MoM and 67.9% YoY. Q2 revenue was about $39.6B, up 36% YoY and above the roughly $39.4B estimate. First-half 2026 revenue reached about $75.0B. 4. Meta $META is expanding its Richland Parish, Louisiana data center to 5GW of compute capacity, raising the announced investment to over $50B from the original $10B plan. Bloomberg reports the total site cost could exceed $250B when including chips, though Meta has only publicly disclosed $50B. Meta also plans more than $1B in local infrastructure improvements and says the site will support 1,000+ roles once operational. 5. Newly disclosed court records show Apple $AAPL is suing OpenAI, alleging misappropriation of trade secrets likely stemming to a new consumer device. The Information reports OpenAI’s first consumer AI device could launch as early as February, though Apple’s lawsuit could disrupt the timeline. OpenAI has reportedly explored several hardware concepts, including a display-less smart speaker, smart glasses, a digital voice recorder, and a wearable pin. 6. Penguin Solutions $PENG announced a proposed $650M private offering of convertible senior notes due 2031. Proceeds are expected to fund capped call transactions, refinance existing notes, and repay $100M under its credit agreement as part of a broader capital structure move. 7. The top 10 most active options today by contracts traded were $NVDA with 2.6M contracts, $TSLA with 2.0M contracts, $AAPL with 1.6M contracts, $AMZN with 676K contracts, $MSFT with 673K contracts, $MU with 609K contracts, $META with 560K contracts, $DRAM with 499K contracts, $INTC with 460K contracts, and $SPCX with 431K contracts. 8. Korea-focused leveraged ETF AUM peaked above $45B in June, but after the recent pullback has fallen to roughly $28B. Exposure remains heavily concentrated in a few key areas: $14B in SK Hynix-linked products, $6B in Samsung-linked products, and $8B in KOSPI 200-linked products. 9. Cantor Fitzgerald reiterated Rocket Lab $RKLB at Overweight with a $96 price target. Analyst Andres Sheppard highlighted Rocket Lab’s successful U.S. Space Force VICTUS HAZE mission, marking the first time a prime contractor completed an all-in-one Tactically Responsive Space mission covering the rocket, satellite, and on-orbit operations. The firm also called the Iridium acquisition transformative and said it further validates Rocket Lab’s move toward becoming a vertically integrated, end-to-end space company. 10. Intel $INTC is investing $5.7B to expand manufacturing at its Leixlip campus in Ireland. The project will upgrade existing fabs, install new leading-edge equipment, and expand capacity for Xeon 6 and next-gen Xeon processors built on the Intel 3 node. Intel says the investment supports AI and high-performance computing demand while strengthening Europe’s semiconductor supply chain. The Leixlip site employs 4,900 people, with Intel’s total investment in Ireland now above €30B since 1989. 11. Fluence $FLNC signed a contract with Avantus to supply a 200MW / 800MWh Smartstack battery system for the Rexford 2 solar-plus-storage project in Tulare County, California. Construction is expected to begin in 2027, with operations targeted for late 2028, and enough capacity to power roughly 84,000 homes. 12. Bernstein says “this time is different” for memory $SNDK $MU, arguing new long-term agreements offer much stronger downside protection than past semiconductor contracts. Unlike prior cycles where customers delayed orders or disputed obligations, Bernstein says today’s memory LTAs are backed by upfront collateral. The firm estimates $SNDK has $11B+ of guarantees supporting roughly $69B of remaining obligations, while $MU holds $18B of deposits plus $4B of letters of credit. Bernstein also says protection is back-end weighted, with collateral coverage rising toward 75%–100% in the outer years when downcycle risk is highest. The bigger shift: counterparties are now hyperscalers and large OEMs with stronger balance sheets, while demand is tied to multi-year AI infrastructure buildouts and rising HBM/DRAM/NAND intensity. Bottom line: LTAs do not eliminate memory cyclicality, but Bernstein believes they improve earnings visibility, pricing durability, and trough protection versus prior cycles. WALL STREET IS THE GREATEST SHOW ON EARTH.